📊 1. Performance Snapshot
We track performance using R-based results - a risk-adjusted metric that normalizes outcomes across assets, volatility, and position sizing.
The Lab - Performance Summary
Period | Trades | Wins | Losses | Win Rate | Net Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 7 Days | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50.0% | +0.80R |
Since Start of The Lab | 48 | 30 | 17 | 62.5% | +24.39R |
Trade activity remained intentionally light over the holiday period. This was not a slowdown in conviction, but a deliberate response to thin liquidity and distorted conditions.
Several positions remain open and partially managed, meaning results will continue to materialize as those trades resolve.
The focus remains on process consistency, not short-term trade count.
📌 2. Market Context - From Distortion to Transition
Holiday trading conditions heavily distorted price action across crypto markets.
Reduced participation, tax-loss selling, and thin order books created an environment defined by:
choppy ranges
frequent fakeouts
stop-driven volatility
As January begins, liquidity and institutional participation are gradually returning. This does not mean clarity arrives overnight - but it does mark a transition phase from distortion toward more tradable conditions.
This is typically where positioning starts to matter more than prediction.
📉 3. BTC - Early Signs of Stabilization
Figure 1 - Bitcoin Short-Term Structure & EMA Reclaim
Bitcoin has reclaimed the 200 EMA on the 4H timeframe, a level that previously acted as dynamic resistance during the recent pullback. Unlike prior weeks, this reclaim was not followed by immediate sell pressure, suggesting improving short-term market acceptance. Price remains range-bound on higher timeframes, but momentum is shifting toward recovery as long as key support zones hold.
Figure 2 - Bitcoin Key Levels & Derivatives Positioning
Bitcoin continues to respect clearly defined range levels, with price rotating between support and resistance rather than trending impulsively. Derivatives data shows funding remaining relatively neutral, suggesting no aggressive long overcrowding. Open interest has rebuilt gradually, while spot activity increases primarily around key levels rather than during momentum expansions. Overall, this points to a market driven by liquidity and positioning - not euphoric risk-taking - favoring patience and level-based execution.
BTC is showing early signs of recovery.
Compared to prior weeks, price is no longer selling off aggressively after minor rallies - a meaningful change in behavior. Short-term structure has improved, and BTC is rotating higher within its broader range.
Key takeaway:
BTC remains range-bound, not trending. However, with improving structure, the upper range resistance area around 93k becomes a reasonable short-term reference point.
Acceptance matters more than speed at this stage.
🔍 4. On-Chain Context - Satoshimeter
Figure 4 - Bitcoin Satoshimeter (Macro Cycle Indicator)
The Bitcoin Satoshimeter continues to signal an accumulation phase, historically associated with periods of elevated opportunity rather than peak risk. While not yet in expansion territory, recent upticks suggest early signs of a potential cycle transition. This metric is designed to provide macro context - it does not predict short-term price moves and should be interpreted alongside market structure and liquidity conditions.
Our proprietary Satoshimeter continues to signal accumulation conditions.
While this metric does not time entries or exits, it provides macro context around valuation and sentiment. Current readings suggest:
reduced downside asymmetry
improving long-term risk/reward
early signs of reversal, not late-cycle behavior
This supports a constructive mid-term outlook, while short-term volatility remains likely.
📉 5. ETH - Compression, Not Breakdown
Figure 4 - Ethereum Structure & Consolidation
Ethereum has reclaimed the $3,000 level and is currently consolidating in a tightening structure. While the pattern resembles a bearish pennant, broader context suggests this may be a consolidation phase rather than trend continuation to the downside. A strong volume node (POC) below price may act as support, and ETH continues to show potential as a leading indicator for broader altcoin participation if momentum expands.
ETH has reclaimed the 3k level and is consolidating above it.
Despite short-term compression patterns, ETH is behaving more like a market building a base than one entering a fresh downtrend. A strong volume area around current prices continues to act as support.
ETH often acts as a bridge between BTC and the broader altcoin market. Continued stabilization here could support broader participation later this quarter.
🔍 6. Altcoin Watchlist (Lite)
We remain focused on follow-ups and structure, not chasing new narratives.
Current areas of interest:
BCH - holding above breakout structure
TON - strength following prior accumulation
UNI - consolidating after a rebound
APT - reacting from a long-term demand zone
Execution remains selective and context-driven.
🧭 7. Key Themes for the Week
Transition > trend
Confirmation > anticipation
Structure > noise
Patience remains an edge
🔒 Want the Full Playbook?
The free digest is the high-level outlook.
Inside The Lab Premium you get:
✓ Full Weekly Playbook
✓ Detailed setups (entries, SL, TP logic)
✓ System bias (SML1 / SML2 / SML3)
✓ Trader breakdown
✓ BTC, ETH, and altcoin charts
✓ Weekly stats & R-based transparency
✓ Real-time trades via The Lab Bot
Join here → The Lab premium (30 / 180 days plan) via Lemonsqueezy
or join via our free Discord.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. We have positions in the assets discussed here. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendations. Any market commentary, analysis, charts, or outlooks reflect our personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.
Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions. The Lab, its contributors, and its systems (SML1/SML2/SML3) do not take responsibility for losses incurred from trades based on this content.
🧮 How We Measure Performance at The Lab
All performance is tracked using R-based results, a professional risk-adjusted metric used by systematic traders.
1R = 1 unit of risk, defined by the distance between entry and stop-loss.
A trade that returns +2R means it earned 2× the initial risk.
A trade that returns –1R means the full risk unit was lost.
Why this matters:
It normalizes all trades, regardless of position size or asset.
It prevents emotional interpretation of wins/losses.
It shows true system performance over time.
It allows us to compare trades and weeks on the same scale.
Our weekly and monthly stats reflect the net sum of R across all closed trades.
This ensures the results remain objective, consistent, and comparable across all market conditions.