We track performance using R-based results — a risk-adjusted metric that normalizes outcomes across assets, volatility, and position sizing.

Last week was intentionally quiet in terms of new executions.

We currently have several open positions and chose not to force trades inside a tightening range. Chop markets are where discipline matters most. Preserving capital here gives flexibility when expansion returns.

Long-term performance remains stable and process-driven.

🌍 Market Outlook

Last week we expected range building. That’s exactly what we got.

BTC stalled below 68.5k. Every push higher gets sold. Dips find buyers. Classic compression.

The good part: we are no longer in forced liquidation mode.

Much of the downside liquidity has already been taken. Funding reset. Open interest cooled. The aggressive unwind phase is behind us.

That doesn’t mean upside breakout.

It means the market is trying to establish value.

What we expect now:

If you’re trading this:

This is not a momentum environment.

₿ Bitcoin

BTC remains inside a key historical accumulation area near the weekly EMA200.

In previous cycles, this is where bottoming processes began — but they took time.

Often price wicked below the EMA200 before real accumulation started.

A deeper flush into the 53–57k region is still possible.

That zone would represent stronger long-term value territory (not financial advice).

What we are not expecting is a straight V-shaped recovery.

Bottoms build through time and frustration.

Short term, BTC is range bound.

68.5k acts as resistance for now.
Range lows offer better risk-reward.

Expect fake moves on both sides — that’s how ranges develop.

Working scenario:

A move toward 75k remains possible within 1–2 weeks.
If that happens, we expect reaction at resistance before any sustained move.

Until volatility expands, assume continuation of range behavior.

Ξ Ethereum

ETH is compressing inside a bearish pennant.

Lower highs are forming while support still holds.

Break below support likely opens continuation.
Break above pennant resistance shifts short-term bias neutral.

For now, ETH remains range-bound inside a weaker structure compared to BTC.

🔎 Altcoin Focus — TRX

TRX continues to show relative strength versus BTC.

Higher lows remain intact.

Short term:

• Consolidation near support
• Watching for EMA reaction
• Upside levels remain defined on fib extensions

Relative strength during a corrective macro environment is worth monitoring.

🧪 Lab Note of the Week

We are in chop.

That means:

The better trades are below price, not above it.

Place limits near range lows.
Trade the rotation inside the range if that’s your style.
If you don’t trade chop, staying flat is completely fine.

This is not the environment to force momentum.

Also keep an eye on alts.

Many are oversold after the prior selloff and could be due for short-term rebounds — especially if BTC continues sideways instead of breaking down.

For now, assume rotation and fakeouts until proven otherwise.

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. We have positions in the assets discussed here. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendations. Any market commentary, analysis, charts, or outlooks reflect our personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.

Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions. The Lab, its contributors, and its systems (SML1/SML2/SML3) do not take responsibility for losses incurred from trades based on this content.

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Traders

🧮 How We Measure Performance at The Lab

All performance is tracked using R-based results, a professional risk-adjusted metric used by systematic traders.

Why this matters:

Our weekly and monthly stats reflect the net sum of R across all closed trades.
This ensures the results remain objective, consistent, and comparable across all market conditions.