We track performance using R-based results — a risk-adjusted metric that normalizes outcomes across assets, volatility, and position sizing.

Short-term execution improved after last week's volatility flush.
Long-term performance remains structurally intact.

The focus remains unchanged: selective entries, asymmetric risk, patience.

The panic phase seems to be behind us.

Last week’s selloff had the typical bear-market character: sharp, emotional, fast.
Positioning was forced out. Liquidity got taken.

Now the market is starting to slow down.

That doesn’t make it bullish. It just means the structure has shifted. The easy downside has likely already happened, and we’re moving into a different phase.

A significant amount of liquidity has already been cleared on the downside.

Funding has reset.
Open interest cooled off.
The forced liquidations largely ran their course.

That changes the risk profile.

At this stage, aggressively shorting weakness becomes less attractive. The more likely path is some form of stabilization first.

Our working expectation:

Range building.
Volatility compression.
A push back toward the 75k region.
Rejection at higher resistance.
Then more time spent building a base.

We’re not declaring the bear market over.

What we are saying is that the market is transitioning from panic to structure.

BTC is oversold and sitting around the weekly EMA200 — historically a zone where bottoming processes begin.

In past cycles, price even wicked below the EMA200 before real accumulation started.

My working scenario:

Another flush toward 53–57k wouldn’t surprise me.

That would be deeper value territory for long-term positioning (not financial advice).

What I don’t expect:

A clean V-shaped recovery.

Bottoms usually take time.

Short term, BTC is building a range.

Expect fake moves in both directions — that’s how ranges develop.

Scenario:

A push back toward 75k within the next 1–2 weeks
Potential rejection at resistance
More consolidation after

This is not the environment to chase extremes.

ETH is holding support and is oversold as well.

Short term: likely range building.
A slightly lower wick is possible, but momentum is cooling.

TRX continues to show relative strength vs BTC.

That’s notable in this environment.

Short term:

• Bottoming attempt
• Possible EMA reaction
• Higher targets visible on the fib extensions

Strength during weakness is information.

After a liquidation event, markets stop trending and start trapping.

The easy move already happened.

Now it’s about patience, positioning, and not getting caught in late momentum trades.

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. We have positions in the assets discussed here. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendations. Any market commentary, analysis, charts, or outlooks reflect our personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.

Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions. The Lab, its contributors, and its systems (SML1/SML2/SML3) do not take responsibility for losses incurred from trades based on this content.

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🧮 How We Measure Performance at The Lab

All performance is tracked using R-based results, a professional risk-adjusted metric used by systematic traders.

Why this matters:

Our weekly and monthly stats reflect the net sum of R across all closed trades.
This ensures the results remain objective, consistent, and comparable across all market conditions.