📊 Performance
The Lab – Performance Summary
Period | Trades | Wins | Losses | Win Rate | Net Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 7 Days | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50.0% | +1.80R |
Last 300 Days | 174 | 114 | 55 | 65.5% | +128.30R |
Slower week.
Fewer trades, mixed results.
No change in approach.. we’re still focusing on reactions at key levels rather than forcing entries.
Market Outlook
The macro environment remains unstable.
We continue to see alternating headlines around geopolitical tensions and policy decisions (especially from the US) creating short-term moves that don’t hold.
At the same time, the Fed still leans toward keeping pressure high rather than easing.
The result:
Markets move quickly, but conviction is missing.
That’s why rallies continue to get sold instead of expanding cleanly.
Bitcoin
Last week we expected the range to hold - and that’s exactly what happened.
BTC moved back up, failed to break resistance, and is now rotating lower again.
Price is currently sitting around the lower part of the range (~66–67k area).
This level has held multiple times.
As long as it holds, it remains support.
What matters now:
support holds - potential bounce back toward mid / upper range
support breaks - likely acceleration to the downside
Right now this is not a breakout environment.
It’s still a range.
Key Takeaway
BTC is no longer at resistance, it is now near support.
That changes how you approach trades.
Shorting here is low quality.
Longs only make sense if support actually holds and shows a reaction… Which for now needs to be shown. A bear flag that breakks a short ascending support level (not shown here) usually shows first signs of weakness.
We are not there yet. Watch 65k to hold.
Ξ Ethereum
ETH continues to show weaker structure than BTC.
Recent price action:
trendline broke
retested from below
rejected at resistance
That’s a typical bearish setup.
Right now ETH is stuck between resistance above and support below.
What to watch:
reclaim of resistance - structure improves
continued rejection - move toward lower support
Until resistance is taken back, ETH remains weaker and reactive rather than leading.
📉 Altcoins (TOTAL3)
TOTAL2 tracks the total altcoin market cap excluding BTC and stablecoins - so it shows the real strength of alts.
Right now the chart still looks weak.
Structure is forming a small bear flag after the breakdown, which usually leads to continuation unless reclaimed.
Many altcoins are already trading at relatively low levels, so from an investment perspective, DCA into strong projects can make sense.
But technically, this is not a clean reversal yet.
As long as structure is not reclaimed, rallies are more likely to get sold.
🧪 Lab Note of the Week
BTC is currently sitting at support (~66–67k), not at resistance anymore.
That’s the key shift this week.
If you are trading:
longs - only after clear reaction at support
shorts - not here, only near upper range
breakdown - don’t try to catch it early, let it confirm
The market hasn’t changed much.
We are still inside the same range.
Just at a different location within it.
Inside The Lab
The full weekly playbook includes:
detailed BTC levels
positioning charts
full altcoin watchlist
trade setups and execution notes
live trade tracking
Available to members inside The Lab.
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⚠️ Disclaimer
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. We have positions in the assets discussed here. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendations. Any market commentary, analysis, charts, or outlooks reflect our personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.
Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions. The Lab, its contributors, and its systems (SML1/SML2/SML3) do not take responsibility for losses incurred from trades based on this content.
📚 Appendix - About The Lab
Core Systems
SML1: Mean reversion & volatility extremes
SML2: Support / resistance reactions
SML3: Breakouts & trend transitions
Traders
Chris (Stockmoney Lizards): Macro & structure
Cryptex Guy: Fibonacci precision
Bitcoin Wizard: Sentiment & psychology
🧮 How We Measure Performance at The Lab
All performance is tracked using R-based results, a professional risk-adjusted metric used by systematic traders.
1R = 1 unit of risk, defined by the distance between entry and stop-loss.
A trade that returns +2R means it earned 2× the initial risk.
A trade that returns –1R means the full risk unit was lost.
Why this matters:
It normalizes all trades, regardless of position size or asset.
It prevents emotional interpretation of wins/losses.
It shows true system performance over time.
It allows us to compare trades and weeks on the same scale.
Our weekly and monthly stats reflect the net sum of R across all closed trades.
This ensures the results remain objective, consistent, and comparable across all market conditions.