We had an active week.

Despite geopolitical volatility (Iran–US escalation), execution inside the range delivered strong short-term results.

The Lab – Performance Summary

Note: We cleaned several older trades that were not properly closed in the system.
Stats are now fully synchronized - slight imbalance versus last week’s report comes from that reset.

Process remains unchanged:
Level-based execution.
Controlled exposure.
No chasing.

🌍 Market Outlook

This week was headline-driven.

US attacks on Iran.
BTC sold off sharply Saturday.
By Sunday, it recovered.
Today, BTC is green - despite expectations of further downside.

That tells you something.

The market absorbed shock supply.

But absorption ≠ breakout.

We are still in range conditions.

Still below the weekly EMA200.

Historically, when BTC reclaims or tests this region from below, the ultimate bottom tends to be within reach (often within ~20%).

But it takes time.

Could we still see mid-50k? Yes.

Is this a V-shaped recovery setup? No.

This is a slow build environment.

Range forming.

We are approaching the upper boundary of that range.

Actionable plan:

Ranges take time.

Green candles into resistance are not signals - they are liquidity.

Quick summary:

• Funding neutral
• OI cooled after spike
• No leverage expansion
• Spot stepped in during panic

Translation:

No aggressive positioning.
No breakout fuel yet.

Until OI expands meaningfully → assume chop continuation.

Clear level:

2200 = resistance

If ETH pushes into 2200:
→ Look for short setups.
→ Expect reaction before continuation.

Mid-term:

1600 – 1800 remains accumulation zone.

ETH is not in trend transition yet.
It’s compressing under resistance.

Relative strength during chop matters. HYPE has it. Full TA and potential entries and targets inside the lab.

Saturday panic.
Sunday recovery.
Monday strength.

That’s not how breakdowns behave. But it’s also not a confirmed bottom.

Bitcoin likely hasn’t fully bottomed yet. What we’re seeing looks like the start of a drawn-out bottoming process - which usually means weeks of range, fake breakouts, and sharp reactions both ways.

For long-term investors:

If we trade into the 58–60k region (or slightly below), that’s where I’d be far more interested in accumulating size. Bottoms are built in discomfort, not strength.

For traders:

We are currently pushing into the upper part of the range.

That means:

– If you’re long from lower, this is where you reduce, not add.
– If price spikes above range highs, wait for confirmation - don’t buy the first breakout candle.
– If we reject from highs, short setups make more sense than fresh longs.

Mid-range trades are low edge.
Highs are for taking profits or probing shorts.
Lows are for looking at longs.

That’s the environment.

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. We have positions in the assets discussed here. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendations. Any market commentary, analysis, charts, or outlooks reflect our personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.

Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions. The Lab, its contributors, and its systems (SML1/SML2/SML3) do not take responsibility for losses incurred from trades based on this content.

Core Systems

Traders

🧮 How We Measure Performance at The Lab

All performance is tracked using R-based results, a professional risk-adjusted metric used by systematic traders.

Why this matters:

Our weekly and monthly stats reflect the net sum of R across all closed trades.
This ensures the results remain objective, consistent, and comparable across all market conditions.