📊 Performance
The Lab – Performance Summary
Period | Trades | Wins | Losses | Win Rate | Net Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 7 Days | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100.0% | +2.59R |
Last 300 Days | 175 | 115 | 55 | 65.7% | +130.89R |
Very quiet week.
Only one trade, executed clean.
No change in approach - still focused on reacting at levels, not forcing anything in the middle.
🌍 Market Outlook
Macro unchanged.
Markets pushed higher again on ceasefire headlines, but remain fully inside the same range.
We continue to see the same pattern:
headline → move → fade
No resolution yet, just ongoing pressure from both sides.
This still fits the same playbook - extended negotiation phase, not the outcome.
As long as that doesn’t change, rallies are likely to get sold and clean trends remain unlikely.
₿ Bitcoin
BTC bounced from support (~65–66k) as expected and moved back toward ~70k.
Right now price sits in the middle of the range.
Key levels:
resistance: ~72–73k
support: ~65–66k
This is not a trading zone.
Best trades still come from the edges, not the middle.
Positioning confirms this:
funding flat
premium negative
no strong spot demand
The bounce lacks conviction.
Higher timeframe remains unchanged:
still a corrective phase, not a clean trend
max pain area remains around ~53k
📉 Altcoins
Altcoins are starting to diverge slightly.
While overall structure is still not fully reclaimed, we’re seeing early strength in select names.
This is where attention shifts.
Some charts are already:
breaking out
holding higher lows
forming early trends
That’s different from BTC, which is still stuck in range.
Opportunities are starting to show - but still selective, not broad market strength yet.
🔎 Altcoin Watchlist
TAO
Strong structure.
Breakout → retest → continuation attempt.
The 290–320 zone is acting as a base.
As long as that holds, higher prices remain likely.
Next area: 350+
Best entries come from pullbacks, not chasing.
ZEC
Early bottoming phase.
Holding around the 0.786 retracement of the larger move.
Multiple breakout attempts, but still getting rejected.
Resistance is weakening, but not broken yet.
For now:
wait for confirmation, not anticipation.
🧪 Lab Note of the Week
BTC is back in the middle of the range.
That’s where there is no edge.
If you want to trade BTC:
wait for support or resistance
not here
At the same time, some altcoins are starting to move.
That’s where the opportunity is right now.
Different market, different focus.
Inside The Lab
The full weekly playbook includes:
detailed BTC levels
positioning charts
full altcoin watchlist
trade setups and execution notes
live trade tracking
Available to members inside The Lab.
🔒 Want the Full Playbook
The free digest is the high-level outlook. |
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⚠️ Disclaimer
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. We have positions in the assets discussed here. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendations. Any market commentary, analysis, charts, or outlooks reflect our personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.
Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions. The Lab, its contributors, and its systems (SML1/SML2/SML3) do not take responsibility for losses incurred from trades based on this content.
📚 Appendix - About The Lab
Core Systems
SML1: Mean reversion & volatility extremes
SML2: Support / resistance reactions
SML3: Breakouts & trend transitions
Traders
Chris (Stockmoney Lizards): Macro & structure
Cryptex Guy: Fibonacci precision
Bitcoin Wizard: Sentiment & psychology
🧮 How We Measure Performance at The Lab
All performance is tracked using R-based results, a professional risk-adjusted metric used by systematic traders.
1R = 1 unit of risk, defined by the distance between entry and stop-loss.
A trade that returns +2R means it earned 2× the initial risk.
A trade that returns –1R means the full risk unit was lost.
Why this matters:
It normalizes all trades, regardless of position size or asset.
It prevents emotional interpretation of wins/losses.
It shows true system performance over time.
It allows us to compare trades and weeks on the same scale.
Our weekly and monthly stats reflect the net sum of R across all closed trades.
This ensures the results remain objective, consistent, and comparable across all market conditions.