Dear readers,
We’re changing things up a bit.
This digest is focused on trading, short-term structure, and opportunities.
Macro updates and broader narratives we share separately on X.
Last week we put ZEC on the watchlist: it moved +55% from the base.
That’s the type of setup we’re looking to catch early.
So from here on:
fewer words, more focus on charts, levels, and execution.
📊 Performance
The Lab – Performance Summary
Period | Trades | Wins | Losses | Win Rate | Net Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 7 Days | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50.0% | +5.37R |
Last 300 Days | 181 | 118 | 58 | 65.2% | +136.26R |
Good week.
Shows again how “win rate” is a bit of a hoax.
+5.37R means: risk $100, make $537.
🌍 Market Context
The market still feels headline-driven, but price is holding up well.
BTC spent most of the week glued to 73k resistance. It looked like we might get a clean rejection, but that never really came. Instead, price kept pressing the same area again and again, which is usually a good sign.
That said, nothing is confirmed yet.
The broader environment is still not one where blindly chasing breakouts at resistance makes much sense. We’re still in a market that can reverse fast on headlines, and the bigger picture is still more bear market / bottoming phase than clean trend.
So the message stays the same:
good short-term behavior, but still need confirmation.
₿ Bitcoin
BTC is sitting right at the upper range, and short term this actually looks pretty good.
Repeated tests of 73k without a heavy rejection are constructive. Usually, the more often resistance gets tested without price getting pushed away hard, the weaker that resistance becomes.
Still, 73k is not broken yet.
That means this is not the spot to ape into resistance just because price looks strong.
What I’m watching
Bullish scenario
BTC breaks above 73k
then retests that breakout / neckline cleanly
if that holds, longs make sense
Bearish scenario
BTC gets rejected here
then short setups become valid back into the range
My current take
I’m not shorting here right now.
But I’m also not chasing longs into resistance.
For me it’s simple:
short if we see rejection
long on a clean breakout + retest
Otherwise, feet still.
Bigger picture reminder
Nothing changed there either.
On higher timeframes BTC still looks oversold / cheap, and I still like the same personal buy zones if we get them:
66k
60k
53–55k
So yes, short term looks better. But the bigger opportunity still comes from buying proper levels, not getting emotional at resistance.
Positioning
The data still doesn’t show a convincing breakout backdrop.
no meaningful spot activity
move still lacks strong demand confirmation
price is doing the work, but the tape isn’t fully backing it yet
That doesn’t kill the bullish case, but it does mean: don’t overstate it.
🔎 Altcoins
This is where things get more interesting.
While BTC is still stuck at a key decision point, some altcoins are starting to move properly. That’s where the focus shifts.
And first, a quick update:
ZEC
ZEC is off watch.
It did exactly what we wanted after last week’s coverage and pushed roughly +55% from the base. Good example of why patience around bottoming structures pays.
This week’s watchlist
DUSK - USDT - 4h Timeframe. Clean breakout from consolidation.
Watching for pullbacks after the breakout before continuation higher.
Coin | Setup | Idea |
|---|---|---|
DUSK | Breakout (SML3) | Watching pullbacks after breakout for continuation |
AAVE | Mean reversion (SML2) | Higher timeframe value zone, less short-term but attractive on dips |
NEAR | Inverse H&S / breakout | Short-term breakout setup, charts inside Premium |
Inside Premium we share the detailed charts, levels, and execution logic.
🧪 Lab Note of the Week
BTC is at the upper range and actually looks decent here.
Repeated 73k tests without a massive rejection are a good sign.
But it still needs confirmation.
So for now:
short on rejection
long on breakout + retest
otherwise do nothing
Inside The Lab
The full weekly playbook includes:
detailed BTC levels
positioning charts
full altcoin watchlist
trade setups and execution notes
live trade tracking
Available to members inside The Lab.
🔒 Want the Full Playbook
The free digest is the high-level outlook. |
Inside The Lab Premium you get: |
Join here - The Lab premium (30 / 180 days plan) via Lemonsqueezy |
⚠️ Disclaimer
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. We have positions in the assets discussed here. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendations. Any market commentary, analysis, charts, or outlooks reflect our personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.
Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions. The Lab, its contributors, and its systems (SML1/SML2/SML3) do not take responsibility for losses incurred from trades based on this content.
📚 Appendix - About The Lab
Core Systems
SML1: Mean reversion & volatility extremes
SML2: Support / resistance reactions
SML3: Breakouts & trend transitions
Traders
Chris (Stockmoney Lizards): Macro & structure
Cryptex Guy: Fibonacci precision
Bitcoin Wizard: Sentiment & psychology
🧮 How We Measure Performance at The Lab
All performance is tracked using R-based results, a professional risk-adjusted metric used by systematic traders.
1R = 1 unit of risk, defined by the distance between entry and stop-loss.
A trade that returns +2R means it earned 2× the initial risk.
A trade that returns –1R means the full risk unit was lost.
Why this matters:
It normalizes all trades, regardless of position size or asset.
It prevents emotional interpretation of wins/losses.
It shows true system performance over time.
It allows us to compare trades and weeks on the same scale.
Our weekly and monthly stats reflect the net sum of R across all closed trades.
This ensures the results remain objective, consistent, and comparable across all market conditions.