🧪THE LAB - WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST (22)

🔎 Quick Note

Markets are doing the opposite of what most expected.

Stocks are pushing back toward highs, even after weeks of oil spikes, Iran headlines, and “this is the start of the broader bear market” calls.

So the question right now:

where does this actually go from here? And since crypto has decoupled from the stock market in this cycle: what does it mean for BTC and Alts?

That’s what we focus on below… not the narrative, but the setups.

📊 Performance

The Lab – Performance Summary

Period	Trades	Wins	Losses	Win Rate	Net Result
Last 7 Days	7	6	1	85.7%	+16.00R
Last 300 Days	188	124	59	66.0%	+152.26R

Strong week.

₿ Bitcoin

Follow-up from last week played out clean.

breakout → move to ~78k
pullback → held ~74.5k
no real downside continuation

That’s strength.

Now BTC is sitting back at resistance.

Important detail:

no real rejection so far.

What matters now

Long term outlook. Nothing much has changed. The current short term run needs to convert into a sustained “new base building” first before we can call this a true reversal.

break above resistance → wait for retest → long
rejection here → short setup back into range

No reason to chase either direction.

Context

This still sits inside a higher timeframe bearish retest
(fib + daily 200 EMA zone).

So even if short term improves → this area matters.

Positioning

Since last week:

OI rising
funding ticking up
premium still weak
spot still not confirming

→ move improving, but still not fully backed by demand

🔎 Altcoins

Setups remain the same — now moving into execution zones.

DUSK

Pulled back into support as expected.

This is where the setup becomes actionable.

First longs can be considered here → confirmation inside the Lab.

Levels:
0.147 / 0.138 / 0.129

AAVE

Moved to ~118 → now back at ~90 support.

Reset into value.

Still a mean reversion setup — not a breakout.

NEAR

Still consolidating below resistance.

Structure tightening → looks like a base.

No trade yet, but one to watch closely.

🧪 Lab Note

BTC holding strong near highs is a good sign.

But:

still at resistance
equities at highs
still a fragile environment

If risk rolls over → BTC likely follows.

So:

cautiously optimistic, but not aggressive.

Inside The Lab

The full weekly playbook includes:

detailed BTC levels
positioning charts
full altcoin watchlist
trade setups and execution notes
live trade tracking

Available to members inside The Lab.

🔒 Want the Full Playbook

The free digest is the high-level outlook.

Inside The Lab Premium you get:
✓ Full Weekly Playbook
✓ Detailed setups (entries, SL, TP logic)
✓ System bias (SML1 / SML2 / SML3)
✓ Trader breakdown
✓ BTC, ETH, and altcoin charts
✓ Weekly stats & R-based transparency
✓ Real-time trades via The Lab Bot

Join here - The Lab premium (30 / 180 days plan) via Lemonsqueezy
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⚠️ Disclaimer

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. We have positions in the assets discussed here. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendations. Any market commentary, analysis, charts, or outlooks reflect our personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.

Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions. The Lab, its contributors, and its systems (SML1/SML2/SML3) do not take responsibility for losses incurred from trades based on this content.

📚 Appendix - About The Lab

Core Systems

SML1: Mean reversion & volatility extremes
SML2: Support / resistance reactions
SML3: Breakouts & trend transitions

Traders

Chris (Stockmoney Lizards): Macro & structure
Cryptex Guy: Fibonacci precision
Bitcoin Wizard: Sentiment & psychology

🧮 How We Measure Performance at The Lab

All performance is tracked using R-based results, a professional risk-adjusted metric used by systematic traders.

1R = 1 unit of risk, defined by the distance between entry and stop-loss.
A trade that returns +2R means it earned 2× the initial risk.
A trade that returns –1R means the full risk unit was lost.

Why this matters:

It normalizes all trades, regardless of position size or asset.
It prevents emotional interpretation of wins/losses.
It shows true system performance over time.
It allows us to compare trades and weeks on the same scale.

Our weekly and monthly stats reflect the net sum of R across all closed trades.
This ensures the results remain objective, consistent, and comparable across all market conditions.