🔎 Quick Note
Markets are getting loud again.
BTC broke 80k → sentiment flipped fast.
Stocks pushing highs → risk-on narrative back.
But structurally, not much changed.
We’re still in a retest phase, not a confirmed trend.
📊 Performance
The Lab – Performance Summary
Period | Trades | Wins | Losses | Win Rate | Net Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 7 Days | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.00R |
Last 300 Days | 200 | 131 | 64 | 65.5% | +168.48R |
No closed trades - most still open. No need to force it.
₿ Bitcoin
BTC pushed through 80k and is now ranging ~80–82k.
Looks strong on the surface - but context matters.
Current setup
resistance holding
daily 200 EMA retest
still part of a broader bearish structure
→ not a clean breakout yet
What’s next
Two paths:
1. Continuation
→ break above range
→ hold → expansion
2. Sweep lower (preferred)
→ move back toward ~75k
→ take liquidity
→ then recover
Context
resistance test still ongoing
breakout not confirmed
positioning rising, but spot still weak
→ moves can still fade quickly
Takeaway
We’re not chasing here.
We bought at 60k - haven’t added since.
Still expecting a possible sweep before real expansion.
🔎 Altcoins
Focus stays on positioning, not chasing.
ZEC - Played Out
Breakout → move to ~420 → strong follow-through.
Removed from watchlist.
AAVE / INJ - Still at Base
No real change:
still in accumulation zones
still early-cycle structures
Nothing to chase - but setups remain valid.
LINK - New Setup
LINK starting to look interesting.
still technically in bearish structure
showing relative strength vs BTC
compression → breakout potential
If confirmed → move toward daily 200 EMA (~11.5) becomes likely.
Early signal - not confirmed.
🧪 Lab Note of the Week
Everyone is getting excited again.
We’re not.
BTC looks strong -
but this is exactly where mistakes happen.
We stick to the plan:
still a retest phase
liquidity below still likely
patience > FOMO
If we get the sweep → that’s the real opportunity.
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⚠️ Disclaimer
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. We have positions in the assets discussed here. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendations. Any market commentary, analysis, charts, or outlooks reflect our personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.
Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions. The Lab, its contributors, and its systems (SML1/SML2/SML3) do not take responsibility for losses incurred from trades based on this content.
📚 Appendix - About The Lab
Core Systems
SML1: Mean reversion & volatility extremes
SML2: Support / resistance reactions
SML3: Breakouts & trend transitions
Traders
Chris (Stockmoney Lizards): Macro & structure
Cryptex Guy: Fibonacci precision
Bitcoin Wizard: Sentiment & psychology
🧮 How We Measure Performance at The Lab
All performance is tracked using R-based results, a professional risk-adjusted metric used by systematic traders.
1R = 1 unit of risk, defined by the distance between entry and stop-loss.
A trade that returns +2R means it earned 2× the initial risk.
A trade that returns –1R means the full risk unit was lost.
Why this matters:
It normalizes all trades, regardless of position size or asset.
It prevents emotional interpretation of wins/losses.
It shows true system performance over time.
It allows us to compare trades and weeks on the same scale.
Our weekly and monthly stats reflect the net sum of R across all closed trades.
This ensures the results remain objective, consistent, and comparable across all market conditions.