🔎 Quick Note
Market still sitting at a major decision area.
BTC reached the weekly EMA200 retest we discussed previously.
Everyone suddenly bullish again.
We’re not convinced yet.
Structure still feels unstable:
stairs up → elevator down.
📊 Performance
Period | Trades | Wins | Losses | Win Rate | Net Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 10 Days | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | +1.11R |
Last 300 Days | 206 | 135 | 66 | 65.5% | +168.11R |
Slow week.
Most setups still developing. No reason to force trades.
₿ Bitcoin
BTC is now testing the EMA200 region directly.
This is the level that matters.
Two paths still valid:
1. Break + reclaim (lower probability)
→ reclaim daily EMA200
→ hold above
→ continuation higher
2. Rejection (preferred scenario)
→ rejection from current region
→ sweep lower liquidity
→ then reassess
Nothing has changed structurally yet.
Still looks more like a retest phase than a confirmed trend reversal.
📊 Positioning / Master Chart
Since last week:
Funding → increased further
Open Interest → continues rising
Premium → still weak
Spot demand → still muted
Meaning:
more leverage entering the market,
but not much real spot buying behind it.
That’s why moves still feel fragile.
Quick breakdown:
Funding → trader positioning / long crowding
Open Interest → leverage exposure
Premium → futures conviction vs spot
Spot tape → real buying activity
Right now:
positioning ↑
conviction ↓
🔎 Watchlist
INJ - Strong Expansion
INJ delivered exactly what we discussed last week.
Strong breakout. Peaked around 6.08.
Now likely needs a pullback / consolidation first.
Still one of the strongest structures on the board.
AAVE - Accumulation Continues
No major change.
Still a long accumulation structure.
Main interest remains:
→ spot buys between 70–100
Patience market.
TRX - Relative Strength Leader
TRX continues to outperform.
Momentum remains bullish.
As long as structure holds:
→ continuation higher remains likely.
Still one of the cleaner charts currently.
🧪 Lab Note of the Week
This is decision time.
Either BTC reclaims the EMA200 and confirms strength -
or we reject here and sweep lower first (my preferred scenario).
Both scenarios can still lead higher later.
The important part:
don’t front-run confirmation.
Let price show its hand first.
🔒 Want the Full Playbook
The free digest is the high-level outlook. |
Inside The Lab Premium you get: |
Join here - The Lab premium (30 / 180 days plan) via Lemonsqueezy |
⚠️ Disclaimer
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. We have positions in the assets discussed here. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendations. Any market commentary, analysis, charts, or outlooks reflect our personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.
Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions. The Lab, its contributors, and its systems (SML1/SML2/SML3) do not take responsibility for losses incurred from trades based on this content.
📚 Appendix - About The Lab
Core Systems
SML1: Mean reversion & volatility extremes
SML2: Support / resistance reactions
SML3: Breakouts & trend transitions
Traders
Chris (Stockmoney Lizards): Macro & structure
Cryptex Guy: Fibonacci precision
Bitcoin Wizard: Sentiment & psychology
🧮 How We Measure Performance at The Lab
All performance is tracked using R-based results, a professional risk-adjusted metric used by systematic traders.
1R = 1 unit of risk, defined by the distance between entry and stop-loss.
A trade that returns +2R means it earned 2× the initial risk.
A trade that returns –1R means the full risk unit was lost.
Why this matters:
It normalizes all trades, regardless of position size or asset.
It prevents emotional interpretation of wins/losses.
It shows true system performance over time.
It allows us to compare trades and weeks on the same scale.
Our weekly and monthly stats reflect the net sum of R across all closed trades.
This ensures the results remain objective, consistent, and comparable across all market conditions.