📊 1. Performance Snapshot
We track performance using R-based results - a professional, risk-adjusted metric that normalizes outcomes across assets, volatility, and position sizing.
The Lab – Performance Summary
Period | Trades | Wins | Losses | Win Rate | Net Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Last 7 Days | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71.4% | +19.91R |
Last 100 Days | 58 | 36 | 20 | 62.1% | +45.04R |
Performance over the past week was driven by follow-through on higher-quality setups, not increased trade frequency.
Risk deployment remained selective, with losses contained and predefined. The focus continues to be process consistency and risk control, not short-term activity.
📌 2. Market Context - Structure Improves
Last week marked a clear shift in market structure, particularly in Bitcoin.
After weeks of compression, price expanded higher, took out prior swing lows, and successfully reclaimed key levels. Importantly, the subsequent pullback resolved as acceptance, not rejection.
This signals a transition from corrective conditions into continuation mode.
Macro factors (cooler inflation data, dollar weakness, renewed policy uncertainty) acted as timing catalysts, but structure - not headlines - remains the primary driver.
The result is a market where levels matter again.
📉 3. BTC - Lows Taken, Support Held
Bitcoin cleared prior short-term highs and retraced into a well-defined liquidity pocket around the mid-94k area. That zone held cleanly.
Key observations:
Prior swing lows have been taken
Reclaimed support has held on retest
Pullbacks remain shallow and controlled
From a liquidity perspective, overhead liquidity remains dense above the market, particularly near the upper-90k region. This creates a structural skew toward continuation rather than immediate reversal.
As long as current support holds, BTC remains constructively positioned, even with pauses and volatility along the way.
📉 4. ETH - Continuation, Not Compression
Ethereum continues to trade with improving structure.
Price pushed through nearby volume liquidity and held above value on the retest. Relative strength versus Bitcoin remains intact, reinforcing ETH’s role as a confirmation asset rather than a laggard.
ETH does not need to accelerate here to remain constructive. Acceptance above current value keeps the broader continuation thesis intact.
🔍 5. Altcoin Watchlist (Structure-Driven)
We are beginning to see selective improvement across parts of the altcoin market. This is not a broad-based move, but a structure-led one.
Current focus includes:
• FARTCOIN
Pullback after recent expansion failed to hold higher levels, but higher-timeframe structure remains intact. Price has retraced into a typical continuation zone, suggesting a reset rather than a breakdown.
• HYPE
Stands out on a relative basis versus BTC, while also holding constructive structure against USD. This combination keeps it on the shortlist as long as relative strength persists.
• CHZ
Recently broke out of a long-standing base. Price is currently extended, but the breakout itself is notable. Any controlled retest of the former base would be structurally interesting.
The common thread across all of these is structure first - not momentum, not narrative.
Execution remains selective. Many alts will never trigger. That is expected.
🧭 6. Lab Note of the Week
Markets have shifted from repair to continuation - but that does not mean everything is tradable.
The edge right now is simple:
Let structure break
Let price retest
Engage only where risk is clear
Lows have been taken.
Support has held.
Liquidity now sits overhead.
That favors continuation - with patience and selectivity, not urgency.
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✓ Weekly stats & R-based transparency
✓ Real-time trades via The Lab Bot
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⚠️ Disclaimer
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. We have positions in the assets discussed here. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendations. Any market commentary, analysis, charts, or outlooks reflect our personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.
Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions. The Lab, its contributors, and its systems (SML1/SML2/SML3) do not take responsibility for losses incurred from trades based on this content.
📚 Appendix - About The Lab
Core Systems
SML1: Mean reversion & volatility extremes
SML2: Support / resistance reactions
SML3: Breakouts & trend transitions
Traders
Chris (Stockmoney Lizards): Macro & structure
Cryptex Guy: Fibonacci precision
Bitcoin Wizard: Sentiment & psychology
🧮 How We Measure Performance at The Lab
All performance is tracked using R-based results, a professional risk-adjusted metric used by systematic traders.
1R = 1 unit of risk, defined by the distance between entry and stop-loss.
A trade that returns +2R means it earned 2× the initial risk.
A trade that returns –1R means the full risk unit was lost.
Why this matters:
It normalizes all trades, regardless of position size or asset.
It prevents emotional interpretation of wins/losses.
It shows true system performance over time.
It allows us to compare trades and weeks on the same scale.
Our weekly and monthly stats reflect the net sum of R across all closed trades.
This ensures the results remain objective, consistent, and comparable across all market conditions.