Execution remained active inside the current range environment.

Most trades this week came from reactions at key levels rather than momentum moves - exactly what range markets tend to reward.

This week was dominated by geopolitical escalation.

Oil infrastructure was hit and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, pushing energy prices sharply higher. If the situation continues to escalate, energy markets could stay volatile for some time.

Interestingly, Bitcoin barely reacted.

Considering how sensitive markets usually are to geopolitical risk, that muted response stands out. One explanation is that crypto may have already priced in a large part of the macro uncertainty during the previous selloff.

In other words, the panic we are now seeing in traditional markets may already be partially reflected in BTC.

That doesn’t remove downside risk - but it helps explain why BTC has been relatively stable despite the headlines.

After the sharp selloff earlier this year, BTC is currently consolidating rather than trending.

That’s usually what markets do after large moves: they digest liquidity before deciding on the next direction.

If we see another macro shock or liquidity event, the main levels I’m watching are:

60k - first major support
53k - deeper support / stronger reaction zone
48k - absolute downside level where I would expect aggressive buyers

Those are the zones where structural reactions become most likely.

On shorter timeframes, BTC continues to trade inside a range.

Resistance sits near 73k, while support is forming around 62k.

In this type of environment:

That’s why entries matter more than direction.

Buying support and fading resistance usually works better than chasing momentum.

One useful way to understand what the market is doing is to look at positioning data.

Instead of just watching price, we track several metrics:

Together they help show who is driving the move - leveraged traders or real buyers.

Funding has stayed slightly negative to neutral for several weeks.

That tells us longs are not crowded. Traders are not aggressively piling into leverage.

Importantly, funding did not spike during the recent bounce, which suggests this move was not driven by speculative positioning.

Open interest spiked during the February volatility and then dropped sharply as positions were liquidated.

Since then, it has mostly moved sideways.

That means there is currently no major buildup of leverage in either direction - a typical feature of range markets.

Premium remains consistently negative, meaning derivatives markets are trading slightly below spot.

That usually reflects cautious positioning rather than aggressive speculation.

Spot participation increased during the earlier selloff when the market flushed.

Since then, activity has normalized but remains steady.

That’s generally constructive: real buying interest stepped in during the drop rather than purely leveraged trading.

The big leverage reset already happened earlier this year.

Since then, positioning has mostly stabilized:

That combination often leads to range conditions - which is exactly what BTC has been doing.

Until we see a clear expansion in leverage or a shift in positioning, the market is likely to continue rotating rather than trending aggressively.

A few alts are starting to show relative strength even while the broader market remains mixed.

One example from our watchlist is HYPE, which recently pulled back into the 30 region before bouncing again. The structure remains constructive as long as that support holds.

Another chart we’re watching closely is AVAX.

AVAX/BTC is approaching a potential breakout from its downtrend, while AVAX/USD is still trading inside a range. A breakout followed by a retest would be the cleaner entry setup.

For now these remain watchlist ideas rather than active trades.

Right now the market isn’t rewarding impatience.

Bitcoin has held up surprisingly well despite macro uncertainty, but it’s still trading inside a range. That means a lot of moves in the middle of the chart are simply noise.

The edge usually comes from location.

Near range lows, long setups start to become interesting.
Near range highs, risk management becomes more important.

Until the range breaks, patience tends to outperform aggression.

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. We have positions in the assets discussed here. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendations. Any market commentary, analysis, charts, or outlooks reflect our personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.

Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions. The Lab, its contributors, and its systems (SML1/SML2/SML3) do not take responsibility for losses incurred from trades based on this content.

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Why this matters:

Our weekly and monthly stats reflect the net sum of R across all closed trades.
This ensures the results remain objective, consistent, and comparable across all market conditions.