📊Performance Recap
Last 7 days
Trades closed: 11
Win rate: 54.5%
Net result: +1.10R
Last 21 days
Trades closed: 29
Win rate: 58.6%
Net result: +4.72R
Markets remained choppy and liquidation-driven, leading to increased variance and stop-outs in valid setups.
We remain focused on process over outcome — the systems and execution framework remain unchanged.
(See appendix for how we measure trading performance.)
📌 Market Outlook — Big Picture
Chart: Solana - USD. One of the coins that has been massively manipulated.
Crypto remains in a transitional phase.
Bitcoin and most majors are consolidating after strong prior moves, with price action dominated by sharp intraday swings and liquidation-driven volatility. These conditions often feel chaotic — but they are typical during broader consolidations.
Key takeaway:
This is not a trending market. It’s a range environment, and that requires a different mindset.
Short-term: caution.
Mid-term: constructive.
📉 BTC — Structure & Expectations
BTC is currently trading range to range, with repeated fakeouts on both sides.
What we’re seeing:
Price rotating between established support and resistance zones
Funding and premium hovering near neutral → no aggressive positioning
Open interest expanding and contracting quickly → signs of short-term speculation
Volatility driven largely by liquidation runs, not sustained demand
Our take:
Expect more chop. Level-to-level trading makes sense here — chasing breakouts does not.
A deeper liquidity sweep remains possible before BTC finds a clearer direction.
Mid-term bias stays cautiously bullish, but confirmation is required.
📉 ETH — Still Following BTC
ETH continues to mirror BTC closely - although technically ETH/BTC has broken out.
Trading between well-defined support and resistance
Momentum remains muted
No clear independent trend yet
ETH strength will likely depend on BTC stabilizing first. Until then, rotations and mean reversion dominate.
🔥 Altcoin Watch (Lite)
While majors consolidate, selective altcoins are starting to move.
ZEC: Strong rebound last week after forming a clear bottom — now approaching resistance
BCH: Structurally constructive, holding higher levels
XMR: More of a longer-term play, but structure remains interesting
Capital rotation is beginning — but selectivity is key.
🧭 Key Themes for the Week
BTC & ETH stuck in chop → patience required
Expect fakeouts and liquidation-driven moves
Focus on clean levels, not narratives
Altcoins showing early relative strength
Process > prediction
This is an environment to wait for clarity, not force trades.
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⚠️ Disclaimer
This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. We have positions in the assets discussed here. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendations. Any market commentary, analysis, charts, or outlooks reflect our personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.
Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions. The Lab, its contributors, and its systems (SML1/SML2/SML3) do not take responsibility for losses incurred from trades based on this content.
🧮 How We Measure Performance at The Lab
All performance is tracked using R-based results, a professional risk-adjusted metric used by systematic traders.
1R = 1 unit of risk, defined by the distance between entry and stop-loss.
A trade that returns +2R means it earned 2× the initial risk.
A trade that returns –1R means the full risk unit was lost.
Why this matters:
It normalizes all trades, regardless of position size or asset.
It prevents emotional interpretation of wins/losses.
It shows true system performance over time.
It allows us to compare trades and weeks on the same scale.
Our weekly and monthly stats reflect the net sum of R across all closed trades.
This ensures the results remain objective, consistent, and comparable across all market conditions.