🧪THE LAB - WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST

The Lab – Performance Summary

Strong week.

Higher activity but still clean execution.

Most trades came from reactions at key levels, not from chasing moves in the middle of the range.

That’s exactly the type of environment where discipline pays off.

The market is becoming more tradable again, but still not clean enough to increase size aggressively.

Last week we expected the range to hold.

That’s exactly what happened.

BTC moved back down into support, held the zone, and pushed higher again.
Now price is trading around 71k, back inside the same resistance area that rejected the previous rally.

Despite continued macro uncertainty, rate pressure, and geopolitical headlines, BTC did not break down.
Instead, the market keeps holding support and rotating inside the range.

That does not mean the trend is confirmed.

But it shows that the forced liquidation phase is over for now.

Right now the structure looks a bit stronger but we are still trading inside resistance. Let’s take a look at the charts.

Last week the plan was simple:

expect range behavior
look for longs near support
reassess at resistance

That’s exactly what played out.

BTC bounced from the lower range and is now trading back into the same supply zone around 70k–74k.

This is still a decision area, not a breakout.

If price gets acceptance above resistance, the next move can be fast.
If not, another rotation back into the middle of the range is very possible.

For now the best trades still come from the edges, not the middle.

Longing directly into resistance is low quality.
Shorting in the middle of the range is low quality.

BTC is currently pushing back into the upper range.

If you are long from lower levels, this is the area where taking partial profits or tightening risk makes sense.

If you are looking for shorts, the only place they make sense is near the upper range -
but only if the move starts to slow down and structure weakens.

If the level breaks and holds, the next expansion could be quick.
If not, the market can stay in the range longer.

Right now we are still in range conditions, not in trend conditions.

On the higher timeframe nothing is broken, but the trend is not confirmed yet.

Price lost the daily EMA50 earlier, and that usually means the market needs time before the next real move.

Moves up get sold.
Moves down find support.

That usually means consolidation, not trend.

Because of that, both scenarios remain possible:

continued range building
another sweep toward the 60k region
or a deeper shakeout before expansion

Mid-term the structure still looks constructive,
but short-term this is not a clean bull trend yet.

Looking at positioning data gives more context.

Funding stays mostly neutral.
Open interest is not expanding aggressively.
Premium remains weak.

What stands out this week:

price moved into resistance,
but spot buying did not increase much.

That usually means the move higher is not driven by strong demand,
but by lack of sellers.

This is typical near range highs.

Not a sell signal,
but also not a confirmed breakout.

Until we see expansion in volume and positioning,
the base case stays range.

ETH is still weaker than BTC.

Price bounced from support,
but the chart is still inside the same range we discussed last week.

Key level remains the previous support that is now resistance.

If reclaimed → structure turns neutral
If rejected → another move lower is possible

Nothing changed here.

Still a range.
Still no reason to chase.

TAO had a strong move recently and swept external liquidity.

Now price is testing resistance again.

That makes this a dangerous place to chase longs.

If we get rejection here, a pullback toward support would be normal.

If that pullback holds,
the structure could turn bullish again.

The clean setups are:

pullback into support
or breakout → retest

Not in the middle.
Not at resistance.

For now this stays on the watchlist.

BTC is currently trading around 71k and moving back into the same resistance zone that rejected price several times during the last weeks.

This is not a clean breakout yet.

If you are long from the lower range, this is the area where reducing size or tightening stops makes sense, because this level has already caused multiple rejections.

New longs at this level only make sense if price can hold above resistance and stay there.

If the move into resistance starts to slow down, the upper range is still the only place where short setups make sense.
Shorting in the middle of the range has not worked during the last weeks and still has bad risk / reward.

As long as BTC stays between support and resistance, the market is still rotating inside the same structure.

That means the best trades continue to come from:

support reactions
resistance rejections
or confirmed breakouts after acceptance

Right now we are back at resistance, so this is a place to manage risk, not a place to add risk.

The full weekly playbook includes:

Available to members inside The Lab.

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. We have positions in the assets discussed here. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendations. Any market commentary, analysis, charts, or outlooks reflect our personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.

Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions. The Lab, its contributors, and its systems (SML1/SML2/SML3) do not take responsibility for losses incurred from trades based on this content.

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🧮 How We Measure Performance at The Lab

All performance is tracked using R-based results, a professional risk-adjusted metric used by systematic traders.

Why this matters:

Our weekly and monthly stats reflect the net sum of R across all closed trades.
This ensures the results remain objective, consistent, and comparable across all market conditions.