🧪THE LAB — WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST

📊 1. Performance Snapshot

We track performance using R-based results — a risk-adjusted metric that normalizes outcomes across assets, volatility, and position sizing.

The Lab – Performance Summary

Trade activity remained intentionally selective.

While the number of closed trades appears low, this reflects open positions currently being managed, with several already partially de-risked. Results will continue to materialize as those trades resolve.

The focus remains on process consistency and risk control, not short-term trade count.

📌 2. Market Context — From Retracement to Re-Engagement

Last week’s pullback played out as expected: a controlled retracement, not a structural breakdown.

As liquidity continues to normalize post-holidays, markets are transitioning from distortion into a more tradable regime. That does not eliminate volatility — especially with macro catalysts ahead — but it does allow structure and levels to matter again.

Two key macro considerations for the coming week:

• A pending legal ruling on U.S. trade tariffs, which could introduce headline-driven volatility
• Ongoing policy positioning ahead of U.S. midterms, with recent market-supportive measures (credit caps, housing policy) signaling a “stability bias”

This creates a backdrop where directional setups can work, but reaction at levels matters more than prediction.

📉 3. BTC — Retracement Complete, Structure Intact

Figure 1 – Bitcoin 4H Structure & EMA Reclaim

Bitcoin reclaimed the 4H EMA200 last week and has since held above it, with price consolidating inside a clear value zone. The recent rejection from resistance was expected and has so far resolved as acceptance, not rejection.

Short-term structure remains bullish, with price rotating rather than breaking down.

Figure 2 – Master Chart (Liquidity, OI, Funding)

On higher timeframes, BTC remains in a broader consolidation below major resistance.

Key observations:
• Open interest rebuilt gradually, not aggressively
• Funding remains controlled — no clear long overcrowding
• Spot activity increases near key levels, not during extensions

This supports the idea of a positioning-driven market, not a momentum chase.

Conclusion for BTC:
Short-term structure favors continuation, but BTC remains below the weekly EMA200 (~97k). This is still a consolidation phase, not a confirmed trend reversal. Expect volatility around macro headlines.

📉 4. ETH — Compression With Supportive Context

Figure 3 – ETH Structure

Ethereum continues to consolidate, trading within a tightening structure. While triangle formations are not inherently bullish in isolation, context matters:

• ETHBTC continues to hold constructive structure
• ETH is trading above key moving averages
• A strong POC near ~$3,030 remains a reference zone

ETH often acts as a bridge asset between BTC and broader altcoin participation. Sustained acceptance above current value could support expansion toward the upper range later this month.

🔍 5. Altcoin Watchlist (Lite)

We remain focused on structure and follow-through, not narrative chasing.

Current focus:

• FARTCOIN — Holding structure after inverse H&S and rounding bottom; consolidation driven by BTC stalling
• INJ — First 4H EMA200 break in ~3 months; sitting at POC, continuation likely if 5.8 breaks (see fib extensions)
• APT — Clean breakout and successful retest; structure remains constructive

Execution remains selective and level-driven.

🧭 6. Lab Note of the Week

In the current environment, edge favors:

• SML2 — support / resistance reactions on 1H
• SML3 — confirmed breakouts on 4H

Avoid mid-range trades and low-conviction momentum.
Let price come to levels.

The free digest is the high-level outlook.

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This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. We have positions in the assets discussed here. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendations. Any market commentary, analysis, charts, or outlooks reflect our personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.

Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions. The Lab, its contributors, and its systems (SML1/SML2/SML3) do not take responsibility for losses incurred from trades based on this content.

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🧮 How We Measure Performance at The Lab

All performance is tracked using R-based results, a professional risk-adjusted metric used by systematic traders.

Why this matters:

Our weekly and monthly stats reflect the net sum of R across all closed trades.
This ensures the results remain objective, consistent, and comparable across all market conditions.