🧪THE LAB - WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST

The Lab – Performance Summary

Small positive week.

We had fewer trades but clean execution.

No forced entries, no chasing, mostly reaction trades inside range conditions.

That’s exactly the type of environment where protecting capital matters more than activity.

The market is starting to move again, but not clean enough yet to increase size aggressively.

Last week we expected a pullback before continuation.

That’s exactly what happened.

BTC retraced to the mid-60k region, held support, and then moved higher again.
Now price is trading around 74k after breaking above 72k.

What’s interesting is the context.

Despite ongoing geopolitical tension and uncertainty in traditional markets, BTC held up well and even outperformed many risk assets.

That does not mean the trend is confirmed.

But it does show the market is no longer in liquidation mode.

Right now the structure looks stronger - but we are still trading inside resistance.

last week we expected a retracement before the market could move higher.
That move happened, with BTC trading down into the mid-60k area before finding support.

Since then, price has recovered and is now trading around 74k, back inside the same resistance zone that rejected the last rally.

What stands out is that this move higher happened despite continued geopolitical uncertainty.
Even with the Iran conflict still ongoing and traditional markets showing mixed performance, BTC managed to make a higher high and outperform many risk assets.

That’s a constructive sign but technically we are not out of the range yet.

The 72k–76k area remains the key level.
Above it, the next magnet sits in the imbalance above the range.
Below it, the market can easily rotate back into the middle of the structure.

Right now this is still a decision zone, not a breakout.

Last week the plan was simple:

That’s exactly what happened.

BTC bounced from support and is now trading back into the same supply zone that caused the previous rejection.

As long as price stays inside this area, the market is still ranging.

If we get acceptance above resistance, the next move can be fast.
If not, another rotation inside the range is very possible.

For now the best trades are still coming from the edges, not the middle.

On the higher timeframe the structure still looks like a larger consolidation.

Moves up get rejected.
Moves down find support.
That usually means the market is still building a base rather than starting a clean trend.

These phases often take longer than expected.

The important part is that support continues to hold and the market keeps making higher lows on the bigger picture.

As long as that stays intact, the long-term outlook remains constructive - but patience is required.

Looking at positioning data gives more context.

Funding remains neutral.
Open interest is not expanding aggressively.
Premium stays slightly negative.

What stands out this week is that spot volume is decreasing while price is moving into resistance.

That usually means the move is not driven by strong buying, but by lack of sellers.

This doesn’t mean the breakout can’t happen.
It just means the level still needs to prove itself.

Until we see expansion in volume or positioning, the market is still behaving like a range.

ETH continues to trade inside the same structure we discussed last week.

Price bounced from support but is now approaching the middle of the range again.

As long as the upper levels are not reclaimed, this still looks like consolidation rather than a new trend.

Key idea here stays the same:

No need to force trades in the middle.

AVAX is starting to look better technically.

The downtrend has been broken and price is trying to build a higher low.
If the market holds above the current zone, the next step would be a breakout attempt.

Bias stays bullish, but the cleaner entry would be either:

NEAR also looks constructive.

The BTC pair already broke the downtrend, and the USD chart is pushing into resistance.

If the level holds as support, this could turn into a continuation move.

For now it stays on the watchlist, not a chase.

BTC made a higher high, but we are still trading inside the same resistance that rejected the last rally.

At the same time, volume is decreasing while price is moving up.

That combination often leads to one of two things:

Good entries don’t come from the middle of the range.

Either wait for the breakout to hold
or wait for price back at support.

Everything in between is just noise.

The full weekly playbook includes:

Available to members inside The Lab.

This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only. We have positions in the assets discussed here. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or investment recommendations. Any market commentary, analysis, charts, or outlooks reflect our personal opinions and are not guarantees of future performance.

Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions. The Lab, its contributors, and its systems (SML1/SML2/SML3) do not take responsibility for losses incurred from trades based on this content.

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🧮 How We Measure Performance at The Lab

All performance is tracked using R-based results, a professional risk-adjusted metric used by systematic traders.

Why this matters:

Our weekly and monthly stats reflect the net sum of R across all closed trades.
This ensures the results remain objective, consistent, and comparable across all market conditions.